France and Britain mull troops for Ukraine to forestall Trump surrender
(Originally published Dec. 20 in “What in the World“) Europe and the United Kingdom could be sending troops to Ukraine.
Talks between the U.K. and its European allies are reportedly being led by French President Emmanuel Macron and remain at an early stage. But Politico, citing an article in The Times, said that British Defense Secretary John Healey suggested in Kyiv that London may move some forces to Ukraine to train Kyiv’s troops there.
These two developments follow a report last week by The Wall Street Journal that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump told Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during their meeting in Paris Dec. 7 that, should he succeed in negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine, European allies would have to police it by putting boots on the ground there. The Journal’s report cites unnamed “officials brief on the meeting.” But Reuters, citing its own unnamed “officials and diplomats,” says that European plans to put troops in Ukraine are meant to outflank Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire and peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv by escalating support for Ukraine. And Healey’s remarks in The Times coincided with a new £225 million ($281 million) of additional weapons from London.
Regular readers will recall that the U.K.’s previous Tory-led government and the Administration of U.S. President Joe Biden appeared to participate in a tag-team for escalating Western aid to Ukraine. If the U.K. and the European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization now break ranks with Trump, it will be interesting to see whether Trump not only cuts the flow of weapons and ammo to Kyiv, but also rescinds U.S. permission to use the ones it has, notably its long-range Atacms. The Atacms are fired by Ukraine’s Himars launchers. Before it gave Kyiv the green light to use Atacms, the Pentagon rigged Ukraine’s Himars so they couldn’t fire Atacms. Presumably, the Pentagon turned on that switch when Biden finally granted approval. Whether Trump can shut it off again remains unclear.
The U.K., meanwhile, also appears to be succumbing to Europe’s economic ills. There are signs the British economy is starting to falter amid nagging inflation and weak consumer sentiment. Britain’s Office for National Statistics said earlier this month that the UK economy shrank in October by 0.1%, the second consecutive month of contraction. Monthly data are usually nonsense, but these may suggest the end of a nascent recovery. British GDP grew just 1% in the third quarter of the year compared with the same quarter of 2023, up from 0.7% YoY growth in Q2 and 0.3% in Q1.
The Bank of England now predicts flat growth in Q4, down from its previous forecast of 0.3%. Despite this, the BoE kept its benchmark interest rate steady Thursday at 4.75% in response to accelerating inflation—it sped to 2.6% in November from 2.3% in October. Like the U.S. Federal Reserve, the BoE had begun cutting rates only to find that inflation has persisted. Markets now expect the BoE to join the U.S. Federal Reserve in cutting rates only twice next year, down from four anticipated reductions. News that the cost of money will stay higher than hoped has sent financial markets into a swoon.
British consumers also seem convinced things aren’t going well: the GfK’s gauge this month of public expectation for the general economy over the next year clocked in at -26. Some are blaming the new Labour government’s first budget, which boosts spending and investment by raising corporate taxes.