Ukraine’s gas shutdown was aimed at Moscow, but could help Germany’s AfD

(Originally published Jan. 2 in “What in the World“) Ukraine shut down the last remaining pipeline pumping natural gas from Russia to Europe.

Analysts have discounted the impact on Europe of Kyiv’s decision to close down the pipeline, saying most of the continent has already shifted to alternative suppliers. While Europe relied on Russia for as much as 40% of its gas before the Feb. 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russian gas now accounts for as little as 5% of supplies. Only Austria, Hungary, Moldova, Serbia, Slovakia, and several other Balkan countries still relied on the gas flowing through Ukraine, and all but Moldova have lined up alternate supplies.

That said, Europe’s energy market remains tight, so we’ll have to see whether it takes the end of Russia’s marginal supply as calmly as analysts forecast. Prices for natural gas in Europe are far below the heights reached after the invasion and sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, but are nonetheless flirting with one-year highs as Europe faces shortages of wind and solar-generated power thanks to the dreaded Dunkelflaute—when dark clouds envelop northern Europe, blocking out the sun and even the wind. That has pushed demand for natural gas by utilities above normal. While wind and solar represent about a quarter of Europe’s energy supply, gas still accounts for about a fifth. So, if the mercury should drop lower than usual in January and February, the removal of even small energy supplies could result in a sudden spike in prices for both gas and electricity.

Rising prices for power are already causing political ructions. Norway has threatened to halt hydroelectric power exports to the European Union in retaliation for spiking prices for imported electricity. And Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland party—the one supported by the world’s richest man and Trump-peteer Elon Musk—is considering adopting as part of its campaign platform a proposal to re-commission Nord Stream. A sudden spike in winter power bills could attract votes to the AfD when Germans brave the chill to vote in late-February.