Iran’s nuclear aims intact as NATO gears up to double defense spending

(Originally published June 25 in “What in the World“) US airstrikes set back Iran’s nuclear program back by only a couple of months.

But they’ve likely redoubled its purpose.

Reuters, quoting unnamed sources, reported that an assessment of Sunday’s attacks by the the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency found that they had not destroyed stocks of enriched uranium. The White House said the report was wrong. “Operation Midnight Hammer” began Saturday morning with a group of B-2 stealth bombers, supported by more than 110 other aircraft, dropping 14 “bunker buster” bombs on various targets in and around two Iranian nuclear sites. A U.S. submarine also launched more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles at a third nuclear site.

The U.S. strikes followed the launch June 13 by Israel of airstrikes in Iran, with Tehran responding with retaliatory missiles strikes against Israel. Both sides say they were now observing a Trump-brokered ceasefire, putting at least a temporary end to their 12-day conflict, but not before breaching it briefly just a few hours after its scheduled start.

Iran is still believed to have roughly 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, produced since 2021, hidden in an unknown location. Israel, meanwhile, says it has disabled dozens of Iranian air-defense missile batteries and destroyed their production sites, leaving it vulnerable to further attack. What role Iran’s proxies in the region will play also remains unclear. Hamas has vowed retaliation against the U.S. attacks, though with Gaza largely razed it remains doubtful how much damage they can inflict. Hezbollah is also still recovering from Israel’s attacks in Lebanon last year. And while Yemen’s Houthis have also vowed to retaliate they have launched only a single drone attack against Israel, on June 13.

So will peace prevail? Trump sounded a note of caution Tuesday, noting as he headed to Europe for this week’s summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that Iran and Israel had been fighting “so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.” Despite Israel’s warnings that Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon, Tehran denies that it is trying to build one and says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

NATO’s members are planning to more than double their target for defense spending—to 5% of GDP, up from just 2%. Of that 5%, 3.5% is intended to be spent on military weapons and supplies. The rest can be spent on domestic infrastructure and public welfare that vaguely improves war preparedness. Yet only 23 of NATO’s 32 members are on track to reach the 2% target this year. The laggards? Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovenia, and coming in dead last—Spain. Spain, in fact, is seeking to be exempted from the new, higher target, angering its fellow NATO members. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has said his country will spend only 2.1% of GDP on defense.

But Germany, anyone who’s studied history will doubtless be encouraged to learn, announced Tuesday that it will boost its military budget to 3.5% of GDP next year—€62.4 billion ($72.5 billion)—and keep raising military outlays through 2029. Even the U.S., with its roughly $900 billion defense budget, only spends 3.2% of GDP on defense.

NATO’s members have already been scrambling to shore up their defenses for fear they may lose U.S. support. Trump put the European members of NATO on notice before taking office that he’d abandon them to the Russian peril if they didn’t boost their own defense spending to at least the NATO minimum of 2% of GDP. That revived a flurry of efforts to increase military outlays that started when Joe Biden was still president. Last year, European Union members of NATO boosted military spending by 10% to a record €279 billion ($293 billion) and are discussing raising the target next year to 3% of GDP.

NATO’s European members are also busy shoveling weapons to Ukraine. So far this year, they’ve provided Kyiv with $35 billion in “security assistance,” and aim to give it $50 billion in military aid this year.