NATO’s new military spending bonanza will be led from Berlin—and Ottawa

(Originally published June 26 in “What in the World“) Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization agreed to boost military spending to 5% of their GDP.

The real target for spending on weapons and troops is just 3.5%, still a hefty increase from the current 2% target. The rest can be spent on domestic infrastructure and public welfare that vaguely improves war preparedness. Only 23 of NATO’s 32 members are on track to reach the 2% target this year. And only one country, Poland, already meets the 3.5% target.

But deterrence remains the key to ensuring that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals in Eastern Europe remain limited to Ukraine rather than extending to the re-establishment of the Soviet Union’s eastern bloc. Based on NATO’s own data on member spending last year, that means the group will need to shell out an additional $406.3 billion on weapons and troops, a 28% increase over the group’s collective spending last year. The biggest additional outlay will have to come from Germany, which last year spent only about 2.1% of its GDP on defense. Germany announced Tuesday that it would boost its military budget to 3.5% of GDP next year—€62.4 billion ($72.5 billion)—and keep raising military outlays through 2029.

Runner-up? Canada, which needs to more than double its current outlays, spending $47.4 billion more, to reach the 3.5% goal. Coming in third is Italy, which will also have to more than double spending, by an additional $46.4 billion. France and the U.K. come in fourth and fifth. The U.K., which will need to shell out an additional $41.2 billion announced Tuesday that it would buy 12 F-35A fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons. The purchase is part of an overall plan to buy 138 F-35s.

Spain, far from Russia and with no Russian minority, is unsurprisingly the laggard, spending only 1.3% of GDP on defense last year. And Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has said his country will spend only 2.1% of GDP on defense. NATO’s agreement apparently gives some semantic cover to Spain and others that don’t want to abide by the new 5% target. But if Spain were to commit to reaching at least the 3.5% target, it would need to spend $36.9 billion more than it did last year—almost triple.

Trump claimed the new target as a big win—he’d been demanding it, after all. But even the U.S. will need to boost its defense budget by $34.3 billion to reach the new target. And that doesn’t include the $429 .5 billion Washington will need to spend on other forms of defense preparedness, including cybersecurity and improving domestic infrastructure, needed to get to the 5% target.

But perhaps the biggest win for Trump in all this—and in his attacks on Iran—is that it has pushed Trump’s disastrous domestic policies (tariffs, deportations, deploying armed troops to stifle domestic protest) down the proverbial front page, if not off altogether. Diversion accomplished.