Trump shifts US military might to Caribbean; Britain buys more boom

(Originally published Nov. 19 in “What in the World“) Israel launched an airstrike on a Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon, killing at least 13 people, in an attempt to wipe out a training camp for Gaza’s Hamas.

When the war in Gaza began, Israel could count on a U.S. military security blanket in the region to protect it from reprisals by Iran’s proxies, including Lebanon-based Hezbollah. Two years ago, for example, the USS Gerald R. Ford nuclear-powered aircraft carrier was anchored off the coast of Israel to ward off just such attacks.

But the Ford is on a new mission closer to home, steaming around the Caribbean to support Trump’s war against alleged drug-trafficking boats. Over the weekend, the mighty U.S. military conducted its 21st known strike against alleged drug boats, killing three people. Relatives of some of those killed by U.S. forces say their victims are just fishermen. The Ford’s arrival brings to roughly 15,000 the number of U.S. forces in the region, leading to speculation that Trump may order an attack on Venezuela aimed at ousting its President Nicolás Maduro. Trump has accused Maduro of being a cartel boss and said Monday “we just have to take care of Venezuela.”

Trump said he had also decided to sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia, despite having failed to convince Riyadh to normalize relations with Israel and eroding Israel’s air power advantage in the region. Israel had been the only country with the advanced fighter jets.

With Trump turning his focus to the Western hemisphere, the United Kingdom said it would spend 1.5 billion pounds ($2 billion) to build at least 13 new munitions factories, expanding domestic explosives production for the first time in 20 years.

Re-starting the behemoth of spending and employment that is the U.S. government may be good for the U.S. economy, but it might not enhance the market’s calm.

Why? During the record-long shutdown, investors had to make do with private data or “near-beer” numbers for a range of important government indicators that weren’t being released—like employment data. Now, the drumbeat of official data will (with some notable omissions) resume, and as it does, investors are going to find out just how good their guesses were. Whether they were overly optimistic or pessimistic, the adjustments they make are likely to roil a market already jittery about the sky-high valuations on the AI-related stocks that dominate it.