N. Korea speeds nuke aims as Iran’s asymmetric war forces US to slow EU arms sales
(Originally published Apr. 20 in “What in the World“) The war with Iran is back on.
A U.S. Navy destroyer on Sunday attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship trying to elude Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On Saturday, Iran attacked two Indian ships after reversing an earlier announcement declaring the Strait open to traffic.
The Navy has meanwhile dispatched unmanned surface vehicles, or sea drones, to remove Iranian mines from the Strait. The U.S. managed to sink most of Iran’s Navy but hasn’t managed to destroy the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ “mosquito fleet” of small, fast attack boats. Mines, mosquito boats, and drones continue to demonstrate Iran’s ability to wage an asymmetric war of attrition against the superior force of the U.S. military. The U.S. is depleting its arsenals so fast it has told European allies it has to delay shipments of U.S. weapons they’ve purchased, Reuters reported, citing five unnamed sources.
Israel’s own ceasefire with Lebanon lasted about a day. On Friday, Israeli forces struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, justifying the breach as a defensive move against “planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks.”
Trump’s quest to quell Tehran’s nuclear ambitions has also prompted renewed efforts by North Korea to advance its own nuclear program. The U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency last week warned of increased activity at North Korea’s central Yongbyon nuclear complex. The Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies also says North Korea appears to have built a new uranium enrichment plant at Yongbyon. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that North Korea has as many as 50 nuclear warheads and enough enriched uranium to make 40 more.
On Sunday, Pyongyang’s armed forces fired several short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. Because the missiles were launched from a submarine base, South Korean officials suspect the missiles may have been a test of North Korea’s ability to launch from submarines. North Korea last year revealed that it is building nuclear-powered submarine.
Growing global instability has prompted a rush of investment into defense stocks as investors try to take advantage of rising government spending on weapons. Investors poured a net $4.8 billion into U.S.-listed, defense-related exchange traded funds in the first quarter of this year, up from $283 million in the same quarter last year. Such inflows have helped push the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry index up 142% since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, while the broader S&P500 index has climbed 64% in the same period.
Institutional investment database Dakota Marketplace estimates that investment by U.S. public pension plans into defense-focused private equity funds more than doubled between 2022 and 2025, even as overall investments into private equity funds dropped 2%.