Iran solidifies gains as clock counts down on Trump’s MidEast ‘excursion’
(Originally published Apr. 23 in “What in the World“) Iran may be just a week away from defeating Trump.
On Wednesday, Iran seized two ships trying to traverse the Strait of Hormuz and fired on a third, demonstrating its continued control of the vital passage. Iran’s chief negotiator said in a social media post that the Strait would remain closed due to ceasefire violations by Israel and the U.S.—namely its blockade of Iranian ships. CBS News, citing three unnamed officials, said that 60% of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ naval forces have survived the attacks, enabling Tehran to maintain control over shipping through the Strait. Even if the Guard’s mosquito fleet of fast attack boats can be kept from laying new mines, the Pentagon told Congress this week it would take six months to clear those already set.
The same unnamed sources told CBS that roughly half of Iran’s ballistic missiles and their launchers remain intact and two-thirds of its air force, contradicting assertions by the Trump administration that U.S.-Israeli airstrikes have eliminated Iran’s military capacity.
Yet Trump has only until May 1 to win Congressional authorization for his war against Iran or withdraw U.S. forces. The 1973 War Powers Resolution gives the President 60 days to conduct military operations ahead of Congressional authorization, after which—barring authorization—he must withdraw forces. To do so safely, he may get a one-time, 30-day extension by certifying in writing that one is needed, but that extension prohibits continued offensive operations.
Trump notified Congress of Operation Epic Fury against Iran on March 2, two days after joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began. While Congressional Republicans have five times blocked Democratic efforts to declare the war illegal, some now say they will not vote to authorize the war beyond the 60-day deadline. Assuming Trump says he’ll need a month to pull forces out, that would give him only five weeks to pressure Congress into authorizing the war or else organize an orderly retreat.
The problem with that is that a new wave of U.S. forces that Trump may be counting on to open the Strait won’t arrive in the region until the end of April. As detailed in this space yesterday:
“The U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier group to the Middle East: the USS George H.W. Bush is now off the coast of Madagascar, steaming north to join the USS Abraham Lincoln outside the Strait of Hormuz in the Indian Ocean and the USS Gerald R. Ford, which was reportedly leaving the Mediterranean after a nearly record-long deployment, but instead got patched up in Croatia and then sailed through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea. A fourth carrier group, led by the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer, is headed across the Pacific to join the USS Tripoli and add 2,500 U.S. Marines to the troops already in the region. Both groups are due to arrive by the end of the month.”
So, Trump could, like former President Barack Obama did in Libya in 2011, just ignore the deadline.
Only Israel continues to attack. While Trump maintains his unilateral ceasefire against Iran, Israeli forces on Wednesday conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon that killed a journalist.
While Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, China continues to bolster efforts to control the sea lanes through the South China Sea. As explained in this space earlier this month:
“The latest is at Antelope Reef, part of an atoll in the Paracel Islands about 275km southeast of China’s Hainan island and 325km from the cost of Vietnam, which claims the territory along with Taiwan. So far, satellite images reveal that China has built a helipad, jetties, and reclaimed coastline for what appears likely to become a runway. Normally, there’s a U.S. carrier group steaming back and forth in those waters, conducting what the U.S. calls ‘freedom of navigation’ exercises. These don’t prevent China from fortifying reefs but are meant to retard its efforts to establish maritime control over the South China Sea, the entirety of which it claims, or to menace Taiwan militarily. But Trump moved the last carriers in the neighborhood, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Tripoli, to the Middle East to fight Iran.”
Ukraine may finally get a €90 billion ($105.4 billion) loan from Europe to buy weapons to repel Russian invaders. Ukraine has repaired a pipeline carrying Russian oil across its territory to Hungary and Slovakia, prompting Hungary’s outgoing strongman Viktor Orban to earlier this week lift his February veto of the loan. So, on Wednesday the European Union agreed to move forward on the financing.
The good news is that Germany is coming to the rescue. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on Wednesday unveiled the new strategy for Germany’s military, called “Verantwortung für Europa,” or Responsibility for Europe. The new plan will double Germany’s number of combat-ready troops, to 460,000, and treat the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific as part of the overall security scenario. Because German concepts of cross-border military expansion have worked out so well for European security in the past.