As Trump dithers in Gulf, global arms spending rises to new record, blasts into orbit

(Originally published Apr. 28 in “What in the World“) Global spending on military weapons rose by 2.9% in 2025 to a record $2.9 trillion, the 11th consecutive year of expansion.

The increase was led by a 14% rise in defense spending in Europe, to $864 billion, according to a new report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) and came despite a 7.5% decline in weapons outlays by the United States—largely because Trump stopped buying weapons for Ukraine. U.S. defense spending, at $954 billion, remains the world’s largest, accounting for one-third of all global defense spending. It was nearly triple that of the next largest spender, China, where military spending last year rose 7.4% to an estimated $336 billion. China’s nearly $23 billion increase in spending was the largest in 2025, followed only by Russia’s $10.6 billion, or 5.9% increase.*

Relative to its economy, however, Ukraine is perhaps unsurprisingly the biggest military spender. Its spending climbed last year by 20% to $84.1 billion, roughly 40% of its GDP. The next biggest spender is Algeria, which raised defense spending last year by 11% to $25.4 billion, or 8.8% of its GDP.

Europe’s increases were led by Belgium, where defense spending climbed 59% to $14.5 billion, and Spain, where it rose 50% to $40.2 billion. But both countries overall spending, at roughly 2% of GDP, remains well below the new NATO target of 5%. None of NATO’s members yet met that goal, though leading the race are Poland, spending 4.5% of GDP last year, Denmark and Norway—both with 3.3%. Denmark boosted military spending last year by 46% to $14.9 billion, and Norway raised defense outlays by 49% to $17 billion. Poland, meanwhile, raised its weapons spending by 23% to $46.8 billion. Europe’s biggest weapons buyer, however, was Germany, which raised defense spending 24% last year to $114 billion.

They may need them. North Korea on Sunday unveiled a memorial to the hundreds of its troops killed aiding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Attending the event, Russia’s defense minister said Moscow was due later this year to sign a 2027-2031 military cooperation agreement. In late 2024, Russia gave antiaircraft missiles to North Korea in return for the roughly 11,000 North Korean troops Pyongyang sent to help Russia turn back Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk province.

Not to mention the weapons. Early last year, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief said half of the ammunition Russia was using at the front had come from North Korea; Ukraine estimates that North Korea has supplied Russian forces with roughly 6.5 million artillery rounds, as well as sophisticated, long-range, self-propelled artillery systems and multiple launch rocket systems.

In return, Moscow has allegedly been giving Pyongyang help in perfecting its ICBM program in return for the missiles and artillery North Korea sent it to help offset a shortage of weapons for Ukraine. That assistance, and the experience Pyongyang has gained on the battlefield in Ukraine, are making it a more dangerous adversary, writes Stanford University Indo-Pacific Policy Lab Director Oriana Skylar Mastro, one that can now seemingly count on both China and Russia having its back in the event of war with South Korea.

With Trump having lost his taste for the fight with CRINK, however, Israel battles on. Israel (wear the end of war against Hamas in Gaza led to a nearly 5% decrease in defense spending last year) launched new attacks Sunday in southern Lebanon against what it said were Iran-backed Hezbollah targets. Hezbollah, for its part, has been firing on Israeli troops in the area and has rejected calls to disarm. Earlier in the week, Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at Israeli forces in response to Israeli violations of its ceasefire with Lebanon.

Trump, meanwhile, scrubbed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, canceling a trip there by his hand-picked negotiators, son-in-law Jared Kushner and real estate mogul and “special Mideast envoy” Steve Witkoff. Trump-led peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have also largely broken down, leaving Ukraine and its European allies determined to fight on. The U.S. military, meanwhile, destroyed its 54th boat in Trump’s war against alleged Latin American drug runners.

Things might soon heat up in the Gulf again, however. The USS George H.W. Bush has arrived in the Middle East, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford. The Bush’s arrival raises the U.S. naval presence in the region in decades and gives Trump 200 seaborne U.S. warplanes that don’t required an ally’s permission to take-off, land, or attack.

The arms race is no longer limited to earth, either. While the U.S. develops satellites that can be maneuvered remotely for combat, China is developing tactics to conduct dogfights between satellites.