Ukraine attacks Russian Crimea, China probes India, Germany joins the Anglo alliance defending Asia from China

(Originally published Aug. 17 in “What in the World“) Ukrainian forces continue to attack Russian-annexed Crimea, sparking warnings of a “Judgment Day” from Moscow. A counter-strike may come from the north: Russia is amassing anti-aircraft missiles in Belarus in preparation for a massive new offensive in Ukraine, according to the Belarusian Hajun project.

China always rises to the bait. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that it responded to the latest U.S. Congressional delegation to Taiwan by resuming its military exercises around the “renegade province.” China’s ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, accused the U.S. of using the Congressional visits to escalate the crisis.

Beijing’s continued tantrums make it look peevish and petulant, it’s true, but it also shows just how irresponsible U.S. legislators are when it comes to geopolitics: the United States is busy fending off a Russian offensive in Europe. The last thing it needs is to push China off the fence and into an open military alliance with Moscow. There’s no reason U.S. lawmakers shouldn’t visit Taipei, but there’s also no compelling reason for them to do so right now.

Unless it’s to win new defense contracts: the U.S. has just renewed Taiwan’s $83 million contract to upgrade its Patriot anti-missile defense systems. The Patriots allow Taiwan to defend itself from the kind of missiles China fired into waters around Taiwan following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit. The new contract will give them longer range.

But for every action there is a reaction and so it will be interesting to see how India responds to the arrival of a Chinese naval vessel Yuan Wang 5 in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port. China built the port for Sri Lanka and now leases it back. Sri Lanka, thanks to borrowing too much money from China to build it ports to lease (among other things), is now insolvent and in the throes of an economic, political, and social crisis. China says the Yuan Wang is only in Hambantota for scientific research; India fears it’s researching India’s naval strength.

China’s desire to secure sea lanes to the Gulf, Africa and Europe might seem strategically sensible, but to Washington and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, it’s part of a concerted effort by China and Russia to topple freedom and democracy everywhere. So as the Yuan Wang was docking in Sri Lanka, Germany was flying six Eurofighter jets 12,800 kilometers to Singapore to help U.S., Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom defend Taiwan and the vital sea lanes of the East China Sea and the South China Sea from China.