Whether Ukraine and Taiwan spark WWIII may depend on whether China, Russia and North Korea will wait for the U.S. to build an anti-ICBM web

(Originaly published Jan. 2 in “What in the World“) After U.S. President Joe Biden gave Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the Christmas gift of a Raytheon Patriot missile battery to help knock down Russia’s incessant missile and drone attacks, the Pentagon announced last week that it would pay Lockheed Martin more than $500 million to upgrade the Aegis anti-missile system defending U.S. bases on Guam against possible missile attack by China or North Korea.

This may seem increasingly urgent given that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un just ordered up more nuclear weapons and the development of a new intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering them to the United States. And historian Niall Ferguson, in a fresh op-ed echoing points that may ring familiar, argues that U.S. attempts to corner Moscow and Beijing militarily, economically and technologically could paradoxically trigger World War III.

Readers may also recall that the Patriot present comes atop an earlier gift of Nasams, or National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, the system commonly described as defending the White House. And a version of the Aegis system, called Aegis Ashore, installed in eastern Poland has been cited as one of the developments that convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin he had little choice but to invade Ukraine to halt and reverse the steady strategic strangulation of Russia by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

This raises the question: why isn’t Ukraine clamoring for the Aegis system if it’s the latest and greatest? And if it isn’t, why isn’t the Pentagon using Nasams or Patriots on Guam? In other words, what the heck is the difference between all these anti-missile systems?

Here’s a quick breakdown of each and how they contribute to what is essentially a global necklace of radars and missiles that can block any attack against Europe and the United States or their allies in Asia and the Middle East:

Nasams (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System)

First implemented: 1998

Targets and range:

• airplanes, cruise missiles, drones, and helicopters
• 50km (firing the surface-launched Amraam-ER [Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile-Extended Range] missile)

Maker and price tag:

• Raytheon RTX 0.77%↑ and Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace (Norway)
• $23 million; $1 million/missile

Users: Australia, Chile, Finland, Hungary, Indonesia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Oman, Qatar, Spain, Ukraine, United States

Configuration and use: Each Nasam has three components, all of which are mobile: 1) a radar, 2) a command center and 3) up to three missile launchers. Each Nasam can track up to 72 incoming targets simultaneously. The Nasam has the advantage of being able to fire Amraam missiles, which are the most common missiles used by NATO fighter jets.

MM-104 Patriot

First implemented: 1981

Targets and range:

• ballistic missiles, but also airplanes, cruise missiles, drones, and helicopters
• 160km (firing older PAC-2 missile)

Maker and price tag:

• Raytheon RTX 0.77%↑
• $1 billion; $4 million/missile

Users:

Germany, Greece, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Morocco, Netherlands, Qatar, Romania, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, United Arab Emirates, Ukraine (by February), United States

Configuration and use: Each Patriot battery has four components, all of which are mobile: 1) a generator truck, which provides power to a 2) radar antenna unit and a 3) command module that controls the 4) missile launcher. Patriots can track 50 targets simultaneously and the latest Patriot missiles have their own tracking system that enables them to acquire targets faster with greater accuracy. They are so accurate that, while older missiles used explosives to detonate and destroy a missile with shrapnel once nearby, the newest Patriot’s employ a “hit-to-kill” system—striking incoming missiles directly with enough force to destroy them on impact. Just in case, they also detonate a small charge that sends tungsten shrapnel flying.

Thaad (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense)

First implemented: 2008

Target and range:

• short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles
• 150km-200km

Maker and price tag:

• Lockheed Martin LMT -0.02%↓
• $800 million (missile costs unknown)

Users: Israel, Romania, Saudi Arabia (sale approved) South Korea, United Arab Emirates, United States

Configuration and use: The Thaad battery is technically mobile, but has a lot more complicated, moving parts: each command unit consists of four separate units, including two tactical operating stations, a launch control station, and a station support group. Three separate trailers provide power, refrigeration, and computing to the trailer-mounted radar unit. Then there are six launcher trucks, each carrying eight missiles. These missiles also use a “hit-to-kill” system to destroy inbound ballistic missiles as they descend towards their target, striking them with sufficient force to destroy them without exploding. Lockheed Martin has said the missiles can strike targets outside Earth’s atmosphere, though how this jibes with the reported range of 200km and flight ceiling of 150km is unclear. Earth’s atmosphere extends to an altitude of 10,000km. The Thaad can also be used to coordinate and launch Patriot missile batteries.

Aegis and “Aegis Ashore”

First implemented: 2004

Targets and range:

• short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, but also cruise missiles and ships
• 1,200km (using RIM-161 Standard Missile 3)

Maker and price tag:

• Lockheed Martin LMT -0.02%↓ ; Raytheon RTX 0.77%↑
• $800 million; $400,000/missile

Users: Romania, Poland, United States

Configuration and use: Aegis was originally developed to be fired from U.S. Navy ships, but “Aegis Ashore” puts the radar and launchers at fixed locations on land. Aegis missiles are designed to destroy both incoming missiles and enemy ships using a high-explosive warhead. While cheaper and shorter-range SM-2 missiles can fly as far as 370km, the Aegis SM-3 missiles can fly up to 1,200km, meaning fewer Aegis batteries can protect a larger geographic area. These longer-range missiles can even hit satellites in low-earth orbit. Work is underway to enable them to destroy intercontinental ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles.

Ground-Based Midcourse Defense

First implemented: 2010

Targets and range:

• intercontinental ballistic missiles
• 5,300km

Maker and price tag:

• Boeing BA 0.71%↑ ; Lockheed Martin RTX 0.77%↑ ; Raytheon RTX 0.77%↑
• approx. $900 million/year; $75 million/rocket

Users: United States

Configuration and use: The ground-based midcourse defense system sits on just two military bases in Alaska and California and is designed to fire “ground-based interceptors” to knock out ICBMs while still in orbit. Since each GBI must escape Earth’s atmosphere to do that, it is a rocket, with a three-staged booster vehicle that lifts a “kill vehicle” into space. The kill vehicle then locates the ICBM and, like the Patriot and Thaad missiles, simply flies into it so fast that it destroys it without explosives.