As Beijing sulks over its beautiful balloon, NATO readies tanks to send too late to repel Russia’s imminent offensive

(Originally published Feb. 8 in “What in the World“) Ukraine warns that Russia may have already launched its new offensive with a wave of widening attacks and as it pours additional troops into eastern Ukraine.

The new offensive could begin within days, too soon alas for Ukraine to have received battle tanks from members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Late last month, Germany finally yielded to allied pressure and promised to send Kyiv 14 Leopard 2 battle tanks—but only after the U.S. agreed to send 31 of its own M1 Abrams tanks.

Now NATO members are falling over each other to ship German-made tanks into Ukraine. Canada will send four of its Leopard 2s. Finland has promised some of its own Leopard 2s. The Netherlands wants to send some of the 18 Leopard 2s it leases from Germany. Norway will send some of its 36 Leopard 2s. Spain will send about five. Poland, which has already send Ukraine more than 200 of its old Soviet-era tanks, will send 14 Leopard 2s. The U.K. doesn’t have Leopard 2s, but had already promised to send 14 of its own Challenger tanks.

Under a new plan, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands will pay to send almost 200 older Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine.

The problem is that the Leopards won’t arrive overnight. Canada’s two Leopard 2s are already in Poland and could be in Ukraine later this month. Neither Germany’s Leopard 2s or Britain’s Challengers will get to Ukraine before the end of March and most of the others won’t arrive until well into spring. The Leopard 1s need to be refurbished and won’t arrive until this summer. Ukraine won’t see any M1 Abrams tanks for several months.

Washington’s approval of M1 Abrams tanks for Ukraine represents a reversal of earlier rejections and leaves only long-range Atacms (the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System) and F-16 fighter jets as the only items left on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s wish list that U.S. President Joe Biden still says he won’t give him.

Last May, Biden caved on allowing shipments of M177 howitzers to Ukraine. By the end of the month, Biden had also reversed his refusal to supply Ukraine with M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or Himars, a reversal so significant that Biden took the trouble of explaining his decision to The Times. In December, Biden promised Ukraine a Patriot missile battery after Ukraine showed that, even without long-range American weapons, it had the capability to organize attacks inside Russia.

While Biden may not yet be ready to send Atacms to Kyiv, he’s okay sending them to neighboring Poland. The U.S. State Dept. just announced approval for Poland to buy 18 of Lockheed Martin’s M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, the precision missile launchers that enabled Ukraine to turn the tables on Russia’s invasion force. While Ukraine’s own Himars have been rigged not to accept Atacms, Poland’s purchase order will come with 45 Atacms.

Washington may have been distracted from the imminent offensive somewhat by the drama over an alleged Chinese spy balloon shot down over the Atlantic Ocean after being allowed to float across the country from Montana, where it was first sighted. China still maintains the balloon was a commercial, meteorological balloon that had strayed and has protested its destruction, with its Defense Minister refusing a call from U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

While the revelation from the U.S. military that this isn’t the first time China’s balloons have evaded it to penetrate U.S. air space, it’s not as worrying as the news that China has managed to amass more intercontinental ballistic missile launchers than the U.S.

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres says he worries further escalation in Ukraine is pushing the world towards wider war.