Zelensky brings his wish list to Washington, winning Patriots and billions in other weapons. But tanks and long-range missiles are still a no-no-no.
(Originally published Dec. 22 in “What in the World“) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday delivered a rousing speech to the U.S. Congress, urging it to approve emergency military aid to repel Russia’s invasion.
After passing a record, $858 billion defense budget for 2023 last week that includes $800 million for arms to Ukraine and aims to replenish arsenals depleted by handing over weapons to Ukraine, Congress is now debating a $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill that includes $20 billion in funds for Ukraine to buy more American weaponry. U.S. President Joe Biden, standing with Zelensky in front of the White House before the speech, pledged that “we will stay with you for as long as it takes.”
But some Republican lawmakers have begun questioning the scale of U.S. aid to Ukraine. Among their concerns are that weapons flooding into Ukraine may end up in the wrong hands via the black market. Others, adopting a seemingly Democratic plank, have echoed voter questions about why similar sums aren’t being devoted to domestic issues.
Military aid to Ukraine, however, enjoys bipartisan support by-and-large. Republicans joined Democrats in rejecting Biden’s initial funding requests as too low. Both the 2023 defense budget and the emergency aid in the omnibus bill include higher sums for Ukraine than the White House and Pentagon requested. They also nixed Biden’s plans to mothball a Trump-approved, submarine-launched nuclear cruise missile critics said was a costly redundancy, and to retire 1980s-era B83 thermonuclear gravity bombs. They also ordered the Navy to build three more ships than it wants, threatening to overwhelm the shipbuilding industry, and rejected its plans to retire coastal vessels to cut costs. Congress also rejected Air Force and Navy plans to retire a number of aircraft, ordering them to use them for longer.
Zelensky’s speech, capped by his handing over a “battle flag” autographed by Ukrainian fighters in the besieged city of Bakhmut, is likely to cement his support as democracy’s underdog. The defense industry couldn’t ask for a more compelling spokesman.
The U.S. also announced it was handing Ukraine more advanced weapons as part of ongoing aid packages. The U.S. has now confirmed that it will send Ukraine a Patriot anti-missile battery and Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, or Jdams, to convert normal ammunition into guided, “smart” bombs. That’s part of $1.8 billion in new military aid announced Wednesday. Of that, $1 billion comes in the form of a Presidential drawdown from the $11 billion provided by the Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act passed by Congress in May. Another $800 million is from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which was created in 2016 after Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Zelensky still hasn’t been able to convince Santa Biden to give him battle tanks or long-range missiles that could knock out Russian missiles on their launchpads. While Ukrainians can be trained to use Patriots, the White House says the M1 Abrams tanks Ukraine wants are too complex for them. (It’s also very difficult to train them not to drive them across the border into Russia.) Long-range MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System missiles, or Atacms, Biden told reporters, would likely shred NATO support by raising the risk of direct war with Russia.
U.S. officials warn that as the war nears its first anniversary, Ukraine will find it more difficult to break the present stalemate and retake territory from invading Russian forces. Though Russia is running low on ammunition itself, Putin pledged this week to give his military anything it needs. And military experts, including the Chair of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, warn that the kind of total military victory Zelensky and his allies in Washington and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are demanding is impossible without the downfall of Putin, which would likely lead to Russia’s collapse, warns London School of Economics’ Russian-born professor of international history, Vladislav Zubok.
Bleeding Russia (and Ukraine) until that happens appears to have been Biden’s aim all along. But “as long as it takes” may prove longer than anyone thinks.