‘Reciprocal’ tariffs ruled illegal, Trump heads to carefully packed Supreme Court

(Originally published Sept. 1 in “What in the World“) We will now find out whether there is any check on Trump’s economic authority.

The Supreme Court will now hear whether Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs on imports are legal. Specifically, the Court’s nine justices—six of them Republicans and three of those appointed by Trump—will by mid-October have to rule on whether Trump overstepped his authority in basing tariffs on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977.

Readers may recall that back in May, the Court of International Trade in New York ruled that he had. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, D.C., then stayed the trade court’s order that the tariffs be lifted within 10 days until it could hear the case. On Friday, the Court of Appeals upheld the trade court’s ruling, but allowed the tariffs to stay in place until mid-October to give the Supreme Court a chance to hear the case itself.

Whether or not the Supreme Court upholds the appeals court’s ruling and says Trump broke the law may not end the tariffs: Trump likely has other legal avenues for imposing tariffs. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has already said the White House could use powers provided under Section 301 of the unfair trade practices statute (which underpin the tariffs Trump imposed on China in his first term), Section 232 of the national security statute (which underpins Trump’s tariffs on aluminum and steel), Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act of 1930, or Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act.

After the appeals court ruling, Navarro said that, if the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs, it would be “the end of the United States.” According to one estimate, ending Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. would cut roughly $2 trillion in tariff revenue over the next decade.

But even the unlikely possibility that the Supreme Court might find against Trump adds to the confusion around what imports face which tariffs when. And that is likely to prolong the uncertainty that has deviled businesses and consumers since Trump took office.

Consumers continue to lose confidence—only the wealthiest are seeing things get better. But what else is new? That is, however, translating into an even more lopsided trend. While spending nationwide has appeared to hold up, much of it is on cars, as consumers try to game the timing of Trump’s tariffs. They’re holding back on buying durables. And half of all U.S. consumer spending comes from the wealthiest 10% of Americans.