NATO matches Russian barrages with new arms, Turkey attacks Kurds and peace on Earth slips Fa La La La La Farther away…

(Originally published Nov. 24 in “What in the World“) Russia on Wednesday kicked off the Holiday season with a new and massive missile barrage against Ukraine’s power and water supplies. U.S. officials fear that things could get much worse before they get better and that Russian President Vladimir Putin could resort to chemical weapons before pushing the nuclear button.

But what’s this coming down the chimney? It’s $400 million in new military aid from the United States. This Christmas’ goodies feature a host of barrel-stuffers, including more ammo for Ukraine’s High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or Himars, which were used to devastating effect to knock out Russian arms depots and cut supply lines. There’s also more ammo for its new National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, or Nasams, which are meant to knock down Russian missiles and its Iranian drones. And look! There are also heavy machine guns with thermal-imaging sights meant to help make mincemeat of those pesky drones.

The U.S. has still resisted Ukraine’s wish-list for longer-range weapons, fearing they might be used to hit targets inside Russia. But the latest plans to put German Patriot missiles along Poland’s border with Ukraine have raised the tricky question of what would happen if, in shooting down Poland-bound missiles, those German-operated Patriots had to be fired into the skies over Ukraine? The German Patriots will augment U.S. Aegis Ashore missiles near Poland’s Baltic coastline, as well as U.S.-operated Patriot missiles defending the airport at Rzeszow, a transshipment point for Western arms heading into Ukraine.

And more of those arms are winging their way from Great Britain, which is sending Ukraine more artillery shells, but also helicopters for the first time.

Presents are also coming from the North Pole, er, at least close to it. Now that Finland and Sweden are card-carrying members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, they’re sending weapons to Ukraine. You may remember that Sweden and Finland were admitted only after promising NATO-member Turkey that they wouldn’t support Kurdish separatists. Turkey has a longstanding beef with Kurds, especially with their desire to create an independent Kurdistan out of parts of southeastern Turkey.

So recently Ankara has been launching airstrikes against Kurdish positions in Syria and now says it will launch a full-fledged ground operation against Kurdish militia positions in Syria. The problem is that, while Turkey considers these militias terrorists, U.S. forces in Syria (yup, still there) have been working closely with these Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, to mop up remnants of the Islamic State. Washington has warned Turkey that attacks on the YPG could hinder that operation, not to mention put U.S. troops in danger.

The U.S. has an ally in its opposition to Turkey’s plans to re-invade Syria—Russia. Russia, which supports Syria’s government, has also warned Turkey against action in Syria. But whether either side has much leverage is questionable. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has positioned himself as an honest broker between his NATO allies and Moscow, even brokering the deal under which Russia allows Ukraine to ship grain from its Black Sea ports. Erdogan is also working behind the scenes to broker peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

So, what will happen, one wonders, if Turkish forces manage to kill an American soldier in Syria? Or a Russian one?