As missiles fly over Ukraine (and Belarus), Asia’s skies fill with fighters

(Originally published Dec. 30 in “What in the World“) Russia launched a barrage of 69 missiles into Ukraine Thursday, aiming them as far west as Lviv and Odesa.

Ukraine said it had managed to shoot down all but 15 of them, meaning it’s managing to knock out four of every five projectiles Russia lobs its way. Ukraine’s anti-missile missiles are so effective that one managed to shoot down an S-300 air-defense missile over Belarus on Thursday. Ukraine said it was an honest mistake in a country fending off constant bombardment and Belarus, a Russian ally that hosted Moscow’s invasion troops in February and that Ukraine has warned might again be the base for an offensive, should get over it.

Why Belarus was launching an air-defense missile in the first place is unclear. But, when air-defense missiles land on the ground instead of hitting missiles in the air, they blow up in a manner not dissimilar to regular missiles. Indeed, some of the Russian missiles fired over Ukraine Thursday were anti-aircraft missiles aimed at power plants instead of airplanes. This dual-usage is one reason why U.S. President Joe Biden for so long rejected Ukraine’s request for longer-range air-defense missiles like the Patriot, as well as longer-range surface-to-surface missiles like the Atacms, or MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System.*

Having already broken Biden’s refusal to give it howitzers, Himars (the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) and most recently Patriot missiles, Ukraine now argues that it needs those longer range missiles, as well as battle tanks and fighter jets, to break the stalemate and eject the Russians. And both sides appear determined keep fighting until the other is defeated, however long that might take. Moscow has said it will resume peace talks only if Ukraine recognizes its annexation of four Ukrainian provinces. Kyiv has said it will resume peace talks only if Russia first submit to a war-crimes tribunal.

The Pentagon, meanwhile, is upset because a Chinese fighter jet flew within six meters of a U.S. spy plane while over international waters in the South China Sea spying on China. The Pentagon said flying that close to the spy plane was super dangerous and risked collision. In future, Chinese aircraft trying to repel American spy planes spying on them in international waters off China’s coast should maintain a safe distance.

These close encounters are a routine feature of national defense. Militaries test potential adversaries by flying their aircraft really close to the other guy’s border and seeing what he does. The danger, of course, is that their planes crash and a government interprets it as an act of war. In 2001, a U.S. spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet 110km off the coast of China’s Hainan and 1,900km from the U.S. base on Japan’s Okinawa. The crew of the U.S. plane made an emergency landing in Hainan where they were detained and interrogated for 10 days before being sent home. The Chinese pilot ejected but was never found.

U.S. spy planes conduct regular flights over the South China Sea near China to help reinforce “freedom of navigation” in the area in defiance of China’s claims to virtually the entire body of water. China’s claims include waters farther from China’s shores than they are near to the coastlines of the other nations along the South China Sea, including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

While China has been building military bases on reefs and atolls in these disputed waters, China is upset because the U.S. in November conducted a record number of “reconnaissance” flights over the South China Sea.

The U.S. is also rushing to build up the defenses of China’s “renegade province,” Taiwan. After Congress last week approved $10 billion in weapons for Taiwan in its record 2023 defense budget, the U.S. State Dept. on Wednesday approved Taiwan’s purchase of $180 million worth of Volcano anti-tank mines.

China on Monday protested the expanded U.S. military aid to Taiwan by flying a record number—71—military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. An ADIZ is a unilaterally determined, internationally unrecognized area around a country inside of which it orders any flying aircraft to identify itself to authorities there. In 2013, China expanded its own ADIZ to include most of the East China Sea, including islands it claims that are controlled by Japan.

Taiwan’s military isn’t therefore the only one worried about threats from China. Japan boosted its own defense budget for 2023 by 26% to a record $51 billion. And while Tokyo aims to develop home-grown weaponry, for the time being it’s on the growing list of customers for Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter and just finished modifying a helicopter carrier to carry and launch some of the 42 F-35s it’s buying.