As NATO vows to absorb Ukraine, China beefs up its naval tonnage and nuclear mega-tonnage.

(Originally published Nov. 30 in “What in the World“) The North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Tuesday promised to send more military aid to Ukraine and renewed its vow to someday include it in the alliance.

It was the original pledge, back in 2008, that some analysts believe provoked Russian President Vladimir Putin into invading Georgia that year and setting his sights on Ukraine. NATO says nations are free to exercise their sovereign right to join any alliance they want, even one dedicated to defense against their giant neighbor. Rightly or wrongly, Putin sees NATO as dedicated to Russia’s eventual emasculation and subjugation and its gradual eastward expansion as evidence of that ambition. Some historians believe that fear stems from a historical pattern of invasions from the west, notably from Germany, across what is now Poland and Ukraine.

Ukraine’s response? “Faster, faster and faster,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. With Russia bombarding its civilian infrastructure, Kuleba said, “Patriots [Raytheon’s anti-missile batteries] and transformers is what Ukraine needs the most.”

While China may seemingly have its hands full with domestic protests against anti-Covid restrictions, its military is still demonstrating common cause with Russia around the Pacific Rim. On Wednesday, two Chinese bombers and six Russian warplanes strayed into South Korea’s air defense zone, prompting Seoul to scramble its own fighter jets. The incursion came after China said it had driven the USS Chancellorsville out of the South China Sea, which China claims as its sovereign waters despite overlapping claims by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan. The U.S. Navy said no one had driven the Chancellorsville anywhere: the guided-missile cruiser had simply cruised through the South China Sea on a freedom of navigation exercise.

China is busy building up its naval power, the Pentagon noted in its annual Pentagon analysis conducted for the United States Congress. By 2025, it will have 400 naval vessels, up 18% from its current 340. That tally doesn’t include ships transferred over to China’s coast guard now patrolling the inland waters of the South China Sea. By comparison, the U.S. Navy has roughly 490 vessels.

China is also on track to triple its nuclear arsenal by 2035, the Pentagon warns. China would then have roughly 1,500 warheads, still far fewer than the U.S., which has just over 5,400. China has rejected U.S. calls for arms control talks, saying the U.S. should first reduce its nuclear stockpile before asking China to limit its own. Russia has more nuclear warheads than either nation, with almost 6,000.