Trump’s policies, US shutdown, leave investors on wild ride to nowhere

(Originally published Oct. 9 in “What in the World“) No one knows where Trump is leading the U.S. economy.

Economic uncertainty, as measured by the aptly named Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, is climbing again. It’s no wonder, with Trump announcing new tariffs willy-nilly, threatening to further gut the nation’s largest employer while it remains shuttered over his efforts to deprive Americans of health coverage, and sending federal troops from Texas to Illinois invade Chicago.

Rising uncertainty threatens private investment by companies that aren’t riding the AI wave. Companies that don’t have the certainty of AI’s increasing demand for data equipment and the power to run it need a clearer picture of where things are headed. Some say that without AI investments included, the U.S. economy is in recession.

The federal government shutdown is exacerbating the caprice Trump has demonstrated since the beginning of his term, since it’s eliminating the regular stream of official statistics investors and boardrooms rely on to gauge the economy’s prospects. Without the Bureau of Labor’s regular employment statistics, for example, investors are relying on unofficial gauges from the private sector. And those gauges are all pointing to one conclusion: the job market is getting worse.