Putin’s sudden visit to Belarus heightens fears he may be about to launch a northern offensive to break the stalemate in southern Ukraine.

(Originally published Dec. 20 in “What in the World“) As Russia’s drones bombarded Kyiv and its artillery pounded Kherson, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin popped up in Belarus to visit his pal there, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko.

The visit lends greater credence to recent fears Putin may be about to launch a winter offensive across Ukraine’s northern border in hopes of breaking the stalemate to the south. After using Belarus to launch the February invasion, Russian forces have been returning in recent weeks for what were billed as military exercises, but which some believed may be preparations for a new assault. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Putin may be preparing a re-enactment of his February invasion, complete with an assault on Kyiv. Ukraine is bolstering defenses along its border with Belarus.

Russia also took time earlier this year to upgrade Belarussian aircraft to carry nuclear weapons and provide Belarus with S-300 air-defense systems.

Russia’s Pacific fleet is meanwhile taking part in regular naval exercises with China, as China’s CNS Liaoning aircraft carrier group takes up position in the Philippine Sea.