Venezuela attack imminent, Israel breaks ceasefire, EU parries Trump in Ukraine

(Originally published Nov. 24 in “What in the World“) Ceasefire, schmeasefire.

Israel violated the ceasefire with Hezbollah negotiated by the US and France last November to launch an air strike on southern Beirut that killed at least five people in order to take out the Iran-backed militia’s chief of staff. The attack was completely preemptive, to hear Israel tell it: Hezbollah hasn’t renewed its attacks on Israel, but it was smuggling in weapons and building drones.

Regular readers may recall that it was roughly this time last year when Israel agreed to the ceasefire with Hezbollah after the Administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to sell it $680 million in new weapons. Israeli Prime Minister and accused war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu said at the time that the sale was one of three reasons he agreed to the pause in fighting. Hezbollah had been shelling Israel since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas that triggered Israel’s invasion of Gaza.

While Trump is trying to end the war in Ukraine by ceding to Russia’s demands, Europe’s own plans are taking shape. Europe’s counterproposal omits the Russian Trump plan’s call for Ukraine to withdraw from the cities it still controls in the eastern Donbas region and raises the proposed peacetime cap on Ukraine’s military by 200,000—to 800,000.

Europe’s plans for a continued standoff with Russia in Ukraine may have been tipped by Denmark, which recently canceled plans to upgrade 44 of its existing CV90 combat vehicles (essentially light tanks), and instead announcing a plan to spend $450 million replacing them with new ones. The reason: it may be handing the older CV90s over to Ukraine next year. Last year, the Netherlands said it would provide Kyiv with €400 million ($432 million) worth of CV90 combat vehicles next year.

Denmark already has an order in to buy 115 new CV90s, part of plans Copenhagen announced earlier this year to boost its defense budget to 3% of GDP, up from 2.4%, over the next two years. NATO members have since then committed to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP, with at least 3.5% to be spent on military weapons and supplies.

The U.S. military buildup around Venezuela, meanwhile, prompted the Federal Aviation Administration on Friday issued a warning about increased military activity around the country. That warning isn’t routine: it prompted at least six airlines to cancel flights into Venezuela over the weekend. Reuters, citing unnamed U.S. officials, reports that the U.S. is about to launch an unspecified, “new phase” of its operations against Venezuela. Two of the four officials Reuters cited said the operations could include the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, whom the White House has accused of being involved in exporting drugs to the U.S.