As it retreats from a losing war against Covid, the U.S. is squaring off with Russia in Ukraine.

(Originally published Jan. 24 in “What in the World“) The United States is evacuating its diplomats’ families from Kyiv as President Joe Biden weighs options for sending U.S. forces into the Baltic states and Eastern Europe to respond to what it says is a looming Russian invasion of Ukraine. The United Kingdom says Moscow has gone so far as to select former Ukrainian lawmaker Yevheniy Murayev as a pro-Russian puppet leader for a post-invasion Ukraine. Russia has denied the accusation.

As Covid-19 deaths continue to spiral upward, Americans keep reaching for hopeful fallacies based on slightly slower daily infection rate. Even White House chief health advisor Anthony Fauci is starting to talk about the virus becoming more manageable based on signs that the surge in Omicron infections is slowing.

Unfortunately, a slightly less rapid rate of spread doesn’t mean we’re losing fewer people to Covid. On the contrary. Even as new cases slow, hospitalizations remain near record highs and ICUs are full. Yet many have become blasé about the risks of catching Omicron, emboldened by the seeming lower odds of dying from it than previous strains. Two things to consider: the odds of dying from Omicron may be lower (though that’s still largely dependent on recent vaccination), but the odds of catching it are much, much higher. Hence the chances of dying from Covid are about the same, and maybe even higher.

Also, Omicron hasn’t been around long enough yet for us to know whether it can cause the sort of “long Covid” symptoms its predecessors have. Swedish researchers say roughly half of Swedes who caught Covid still suffer some kind of lingering loss of smell.