North Korea continues its fusillade as the Pentagon ships more weapons to Ukraine.
(Originally published Nov. 7 in “What in the World“) North Korea launched more missiles late last week and over the weekend, including an ICBM that reportedly failed mid-flight. The latest launches coincided with a visit to South Korea by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin as the two nations conduct military exercises.
The hermit nation’s accelerated barrages this year not only frighten its neighbors and the United States, they demonstrate growing capabilities to conduct nuclear warfare, including longer-range missiles, missiles that can be maneuvered to avoid interception, hypersonic missiles too fast to be intercepted, mobile launches by rail to avoid preemptive attack, and missiles launched from submarines that can position themselves well beyond North Korea’s shores near an enemy’s coastline.
Russia’s own capabilities, on display in Ukraine, may not be the best advertising for its military wares. Experts say Southeast Asian arms importers—including Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines—are increasingly likely to switch arms supplies to contractors in the U.S. and its allies. The only exceptions are international pariah Myanmar and Vietnam, which already has too large a stock of Russia-compatible hardware to make a quick switch.
While Russia may be unable to win in Ukraine, it still seems unlikely to lose. The prospect of a continued war of attrition—with its cancerous impact on the global economy—has prompted the Administration of U.S. President Joe Biden to quietly urge Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to drop his refusal to talk with Putin’s regime and instead signal an openness to negotiate. The White House’s concern is that the protracted war is losing public support as the costs mount. The trouble is that the White House isn’t suggesting Zelensky negotiate—it supports his insistence that Russia withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Instead, it’s just suggesting he adopt the public posture that he is willing to negotiate and thus maintain the moral high ground. Seeking to maintain the moral high ground is ordinarily the first indication you may have lost it.
As discussed in this space late last month, RAND political scientists Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe warn that insisting on Russia’s “total surrender” in Ukraine—including giving up the Crimea and other territory it seized in 2014 and allowing Ukraine to join Western military alliances—is pushing Russian President Vladimir Putin into what he believes is as an existential contest.
The problem, they argue, is that short of Putin’s ouster it appears unlikely that Ukraine can achieve victory over Russia. And unless the West intervenes directly in the war alongside Ukraine, Russia won’t lose. That leaves Putin free to bleed both countries—and the global economy—indefinitely.
Worse, he can escalate, either by deploying unconventional weapons in Ukraine or by using the West’s military aid as justification for expanding the war beyond Ukraine’s borders into the rest of Europe, touching off what is likely to culminate in full-scale nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO. They argue that Washington needs to be doing more to encourage a negotiated settlement between Kyiv and Moscow.
On Friday, the U.S. approved $400 million in new military aid to Ukraine. Unlike equipment in earlier packages, the latest weapons will be bought new from military contractors. The Pentagon had been giving Ukraine hand-me-downs from existing inventory but was getting nervous about its own stocks.