Rising fertilizer prices to hit Australian wheat yields as Indonesia cuts off palm-oil exports to spite its current account

(Originally published April 29 in “What in the World“) Evidence continues to mount of Russia’s efforts to sabotage Ukraine’s agricultural capacity. Rising prices for natural gas, meanwhile, and with them fertilizer, are expected to slash wheat production by Australia, the world’s sixth-largest exporter, by almost 20%.

Indonesia’s decision to ban palm oil exports, justified as a way to ensure continued access to affordable cooking oil by Indonesia’s 274 million people, is being decried as food protectionism that will further accelerate global food-price inflation. The poorest nations are most vulnerable, particularly Africa, India, and the Philippines, Natixis economist Trinh Nguyen explains in a piece for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The move may also backfire, she argues, by sharply curtailing crucial export income to Indonesia’s economy.