While humans keep busy bombarding each other in Ukraine, the war there is hastening the rise of networked missiles and AI-controlled drones

(Originally published Jan. 4 in “What in the World“) Ukrainian forces using U.S.-supplied Himars killed at least 80 Russian troops in the occupied Donbas region, though estimates of the dead range as high as 400. Russia says troops violating rules against using mobile phones helped give away their position. Ukrainian authorities say Russia appears to be running low on missiles, which are being used almost as fast as they can be manufactured, and which is forcing Moscow to rely increasingly on Iranian drones.

While Russian President Vladimir Putin is expending Russian lives in Ukraine, Washington is expending something the pandemic illustrated it cares much more about: money. As noted in earlier editions, Ukraine is using U.S.-supplied Nasams (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) to knock down almost every one of Russia’s missiles and Iranian drones. And it doesn’t even have its new Patriot battery yet. Each Iranian drone costs just $20,000. Every Nasam missile knocking them down costs between $500,000-$1 million. And those are cheap, readily available Amraams. Once Ukraine starts firing Patriot missiles, every shot will cost U.S. taxpayers $4 million.

The U.S. is meanwhile building a troop presence in neighboring Romania, where it is using a base near the Black Sea to resupply Ukraine with weapons. Not far away on the coast are U.S. Patriot missiles provided to Romania in 2020. The Patriots join a Thaad (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) battery the U.S. installed in 2019 at a base further up the Danube along the Bulgarian border. The Thaad augmented the Aegis Ashore missile defense system it put there in 2015. To defend Europe from Iranian missiles. Just like the Aegis Ashore system it’s been building on Poland’s Baltic coast.

Eventually, however, we may be able to better exterminate humans in warfare—by eliminating humans from warfare. The war in Ukraine is rapidly hastening the development of semi-autonomous and even autonomous drones that use artificial intelligence to identify and destroy targets long after the humans who deployed them have left the scene.

The U.S. Navy is investing in stealth drones that would operate alongside piloted fighter jets in manned-unmanned teams the Navy fittingly calls “MUM.”