A stray Russian missile might not draw NATO into direct combat, but will likely accelerate arms to Ukraine.

(Originally published Nov. 16 in “What in the World“) Russia launched a new wave of missile strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, and one missile reportedly landed across the border inside Poland, killing two people in the village of Przewodow. Russia denied any of its weapons were used in Poland, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to accuse Russia of escalating the war.

Both responses are likely wide of the truth: Russia’s denial likely understates the likelihood of an errant missile but escalating with a deliberate attack against Poland could trigger wider war with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A consensus of NATO’s members would need to invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty for a deliberate attack on Poland to be considered an attack on all of NATO. Poland is reportedly still considering whether to invoke Article 4, calling for urgent consultations with fellow members in the face of a threat.

How to interpret the Polish explosion will likely fall to U.S. President Joe Biden. The Biden Administration is already scrambling to mollify Ukrainian officials after Gen. Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, suggested Kyiv should try negotiating with Moscow to cement its gains before winter puts the war into deep freeze.

And Kyiv is in no mood to negotiate after its forces liberated the southern city of Kherson from Russia, in part by using U.S. rockets to destroy Russian supply lines. More weapons are on the way and Ukraine is determined to press its advantage despite falling temperatures. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also ruled out talking with Russian President Vladimir Putin or broaching the subject of yielding an inch of Ukrainian territory—even the strategically vital Crimean Peninsula and the port of Sevastopol.

Nothing says “I’m sorry” like a bouquet of long-range missiles like the kind Zelensky has been asking for. Washington has already given Ukraine so many rockets and their launchers—the vaunted high-mobility artillery rocket systems, or Himars—that it’s just ordered up $500 million more from their manufacturer, Lockheed Martin. And on Tuesday, Biden asked the U.S. Congress to approve another $38 billion in aid for Ukraine–$21.7 billion of that for weapons—bringing the total bill for U.S. support to Kyiv to $100 billion. The Polish explosion could be used to justify an even larger flow of arms from the U.S. and NATO to Ukraine.