With no nukes flying from Russia after Ukraine’s drone strike, Biden is ready to risk moving bigger guns to Ukraine

(Originally published Dec. 14 in “What in the World“) After seeing Ukraine use homemade drones last week to strike targets in Russia without provoking a nuclear response, Washington appears to have concluded it’s safe to let Kyiv use NATO weaponry to retaliate directly against Russia’s invasion.

CNN broke today’s big story: the Biden Administration is preparing to send Ukraine Raytheon’s Patriot missile batteries to better defend against Russia’s military bombardment of its people and infrastructure. Washington had resisted sending more advanced, long-range weaponry to Kyiv for fear it would use them to launch strikes on Russian soil, which Russian President Vladimir Putin could equate with a NATO attack against Russia. Another concern is that Patriots require extensive training and any immediate deployment would require putting either U.S. or NATO troops inside Ukraine. But CNN said Ukrainian forces would be trained in Germany to use the new Patriots.

Similar concerns nearly scotched an offer last month by Germany to send Patriots to the Polish border after a stray Ukrainian air-defense missile struck a village there. Patriots are long-range missiles, so one concern was what might happen if Poland launched a Patriot to intercept a missile still soaring over Ukrainian air space. That question becomes even more pertinent if Ukraine gets Patriots. If Kyiv launches a Patriot to intercept a missile while still in Russian air space, will Putin interpret it as a NATO attack on Russia? More importantly, can Russian forces tell the difference between an air-defense missile in Russian air space and an offensive missile about to wipe out a Russian city?

If the transfer goes ahead, Ukraine will join a growing list of U.S. allies that have acquired Patriots, including Germany, Greece, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, the Netherlands, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, and the United Arab Emirates.

The U.S. has also negotiated a deal to send Patriots to Slovakia in return for Slovakia sending Ukraine Soviet-era S-300 air-defense systems. Earlier, the Pentagon was reportedly negotiating similar arrangements with allies in the Middle East to send Ukraine their National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, or Nasams, in return for newer models once Raytheon can build more. Slovakia’s foreign minister said the country was also in talks with Washington about sending Kyiv Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets.

After making not-so-subtle threats since the February invasion to use nuclear weapons if the U.S and NATO came directly to Ukraine’s defense, Putin has recently softened his tone, saying Russia would not resort to nuclear weapons unless they were used against it.

The U.S. State Dept. responded to Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russia by suggesting they’d been launched without U.S. knowledge or approval. Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed Biden’s words that Washington wouldn’t “encourage or enable” Ukraine to attack Russia. But the narrative of Washington losing control over its client Kyiv rang a bit hollow. We earlier entertained the possibility that the drone attack was sanctioned by the Pentagon as a test of Russia’s response.

With no mushroom clouds yet on Ukraine’s horizon, Biden appears to have concluded that Russia’s red line for NATO involvement has been pushed back along with his troops across the Dnipro River.

We may soon find out. Ukrainian forces appear poised to launch an assault eastward against Russian-held Melitopol. Victory there might cut the land bridge Russia has established to the strategically vital Crimea Peninsula, which some have suggested may have been Putin’s end-goal all along.