‘We wiped it out,’ Trump says, but claims Iran still pursuing ‘sinister’ nuke program

(Originally published Feb. 26 in “What in the World“) More U.S. fighter jets are headed to the Middle East.

Six more F-22 stealth fighters are reportedly en route to Israel, where 11 F-22 landed just yesterday. They join the more than 130 F-15s, F-16s, F-22s, F-35s and AWACs already positioned in Israel and at bases around the region, the largest buildup of U.S. forces there since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike force is already just outside the Gulf in the Arabian Sea, and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike force is now in the eastern Mediterranean. Those two groups, each with three destroyers and up to 90 aircraft aboard, are joined by six additional destroyers sprinkled around the Arabian peninsula and three other Naval vessels in the Gulf.

After assuring the world emphatically that U.S. attacks last June had completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear-weapons grade fuel, the Trump administration now warns that Iran could scrounge enough to make a bomb in just days. Trump sought to clarify things during his State of the Union address yesterday, saying “We wiped it out, and they want to start all over again and are at this moment again, pursuing their sinister ambitions.” Trump also said Iran’s ballistic missile program was a direct threat. “They’ve already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas,” he said, “and they’re working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America.”

So, the pretext for war has been served. The facts on the ground are, as usual, more complex. Officially, Tehran still denies ever trying to make a nuclear weapon. And the U.N. believes its weapons-grade uranium is buried beneath deep beneath the rubble of the attacks. But there were concerns that Iran had managed to evacuate 408kg of enriched uranium before the attacks and hide it elsewhere.

After the June attack, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran would likely be able to resume making enriched uranium in just months. Grossi’s updated appraisal corroborated an initial assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and European intelligence agencies that the strike set back the Iranian nuclear program by only a few months.

Since then, satellite images reveal that Iran has been conducting work at its Isfahan Nuclear Technology/Research Center, which was struck by U.S. submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles, and hardening defenses at Natanz Nuclear Facility, which U.S. B-2s hit with two bunker busters.

But there is no evidence of Tehran trying to recover material from beneath the Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant, which American B-2 bombers hit with 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) “bunker buster” bombs on June 21. Maybe that’s because the enriched uranium was no longer at Fordow when the bombs fell.

Tehran has warned it will “escalate” the war if Trump attacks, with the Financial Times, quoting an unnamed “regime insider” as saying Iran would likely attack U.S. bases in the region. But what Trump may favor is for Israel to conduct the initial strike in order to provoke an Iranian counterattack. Then, any U.S. attack—however premeditated by the buildup of forces—could be portrayed to the American public as justified reprisal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House just last week to push Trump into super-sizing his ultimatum to Tehran, including surrendering its nuclear-weapons and ballistic missiles programs and abandoning the proxy militias it supports around the region. It’s these very militias, however, that Iran will likely call on to assist in its own counter-attack.

However the attacks unfold, the prevailing assumption in the White House is “we’re going to bomb them,” according to an unnamed insider quoted by Politico.