Trump sends more F-22s to MidEast ahead of Iran attack; Germany girds for war
(Originally published Feb. 25 in “What in the World“) Trump keeps pouring more military hardware into the Middle East ahead of his attack on Iran.
His latest addition is a dozen F-22 stealth fighters, which made the journey from a base in the UK, joining the more than 120 F-15s, F-16s, F-22s, F-35s and AWACs already positioned in Israel and at bases around the region, the largest buildup of U.S. forces there since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike force is already just outside the Gulf in the Arabian Sea, and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike force has now entered the Mediterranean. Those two groups, each with three destroyers and up to 90 aircraft aboard, are joined by six additional destroyers sprinkled around the Arabian peninsula and three other Naval vessels in the Gulf.
Faced with this growing “armada,” as Trump likes to call it, Iran is closing in on a deal to buy CM‑302 supersonic anti-ship missiles from China, though it’s unclear if the missiles would arrive in time to defend Iran from what appears to be imminent U.S. attack. But Iran appears intent on defying Trump, argues former Biden-administration negotiator Nate Swanson in Foreign Affairs, largely for the reasons explored in this space yesterday—Iran sees Trump’s ultimatum’s as a demand for its complete surrender, posing an existential threat to the Islamic Republic.
In addition to a widespread U.S. bombing campaign, Tehran also faces renewed attack by Israel. When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went to Mar-a-Lago in December, Swanson says, he won Trump’s go-ahead to attack Iran’s ballistic missile program whenever he likes. Presumably Israel would choose to launch its assault when it can enjoy the cover of a massive U.S. aerial bombardment.
Not only does Tehran feel it must stand up to Trump’s demands or face their own destruction, Swanson argues, but they feel they must deliver a painful counterpunch to avoid being subjected to more, periodic demonstrations of Trump’s military caprice. Swanson foresees Tehran directing its proxy militia in Yemen, the Houthis, to step attacks against U.S. bases in the region and against Red Sea shipping and warns Iran could also directly attack oil infrastructure in its Arab neighbors.
The biggest new investment in military firepower, however, are coming not from Iran or the United States, but rather from Europe. According to a new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, European defense spending last year accounted for more than 21% of global defense spending, up from 17% in 2022 and led by Germany, which has become the world’s fourth-largest defense spender.
NATO members also agreed last summer to boost their military spending to 5% of GDP, up from 2%. As detailed last month in this space:
Europe is already racing to beef up its ability to defend itself without the U.S., or even from the U.S. …Europe is looking to replace what it buys from the U.S. Denmark now spends more than half its defense budget inside Europe, whereas between 2020 and 2024, nearly 80% of its defense imports were from the U.S. And the U.K. recently replaced its dependence on U.S. military satellites with its own constellation.
Last year, European defense spending jumped to $560 billion, double what it was 10 years ago. That has already unleashed a stampede of arms production: Germany’s Rheinmetall has opened or is building 16 new factories, and is on track to churning out 1.5 million 155mm artillery shells a year, more than what the entire U.S. defense industry produces. The European defense consortium MBDA has more than doubled monthly missile production capacity since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Italy’s Leonardo has beefed up its staffing by 50% in just over two years. And both Leonardo and Britain’s BAE Systems are helping to upgrade the radar in Royal Air Force Typhoon fighters to bring them closer to par with the U.S.-made F-35.