Trump heads to China summit without Gulf oil card as Hormuz tensions mount

(Originally published May 13 in “What in the World“) Trump and Iran remain at loggerheads over resuming oil shipments to the world.

Iran refused to relent after Trump rejected its response to his proposal for new peace talks, insisting that any peace deal would include lifting of U.S. sanctions, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and reparations. And why not? Classified assessments say that, despite the U.S.-Israeli (Saudi and UAE) attacks, Iran still has “operational access” to 30 of its 33 known missile sites along the Strait.

Trump left for his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing warning of renewed attacks: “we’re either going to make a deal or they’re going to be decimated.” And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who’s riding with the boss to Beijing, told Congress Tuesday that “We have a plan to escalate, if necessary. We have a plan to retrograde, if necessary. We have a plan to shift assets.”

Iran may not be waiting. Kuwait said Tuesday that six members of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps had exchanged fire with Kuwaiti soldiers May 1 during an attempt to infiltrate Kuwait’s largely uninhabited Bubiyan Island aboard a fishing boat. Kuwaiti forces captured four of the six Iranians. Kuwait and the UAE said Tuesday they had detected drones in their airspace, and Qatar said a drone attacked a cargo vessel in its waters.

It now turns out that Saudi Arabia, as well as the UAE, launched secret reprisal attacks against Iran during the war. Indeed, the Saudi attacks preceded those by the UAE, taking place in late March, while the UAE attacked in April.

Those Iranian attacks against the oil and gas infrastructure of U.S. Gulf allies next door may have a more lasting impact on energy than even the closure of the Strait. After being struck twice in April by debris from drones shot from the skies, the UAE’s largest natural gas plant won’t be fully repaired until early next year.