Trump accelerates nuke race as China, Israel emulate ‘Donroe Doctrine’

(Originally published Feb. 10 in “What in the World“) Trump has let the last arms treaty with Russia expire, leaving no official brake on the nuclear arms race. And while he may be close to clinching a new arms control treaty, he’s charging full nukes ahead in the meantime.

The 2010 New START treaty, which set limits on how many bombers, missiles and warheads Russia and the U.S. could deploy, was effectively scrapped in 2023 when Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was suspending Moscow’s participation. The treaty officially expired last week. “Rather than extend “NEW START” (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated),” Trump posted, “we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.”

Russia’s suspension of New START only underscored an already accelerating nuclear arms race between China, Russia and the U.S.

• In addition to dropping out of New START, Russia has threatened to deploy a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine or possibly even Europe in response to Western military aid to Ukraine. It has also been deploying shorter-range nuclear missiles that weren’t covered by New START’s limits on intercontinental ballistic missiles.
• China long ago pulled out nuclear arms-control talks with the United States and has instead been expanding its nuclear arsenal, moving beyond deterrence in hopes of matching the “mutually assured destruction” capability that Russia and the United States both have. The Trump Administration believes China has also been conducting secret underground nuclear tests in violation of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which the U.S. Senate never ratified.
• The U.S. has, meanwhile, been modernizing its own nuclear arsenal, including a new nuclear warhead, the W93, to sit atop submarine-based nuclear missiles and deployed the 50-kiloton B61-12 air-dropped gravity bomb at U.S. bases in Europe. The Pentagon is also building a new, 360 kiloton nuclear gravity bomb to replace older B61-7s from the 1980s and 1990s with a more accurate alternative, as well as the massive, civilization-ending, 1.2 megaton B83-1s. Trump last year called for the resumption of nuclear testing.
• As part of New START, the U.S. Navy had plugged up four of the 24 nuclear-missile tubes on its 14 nuclear-capable submarines. With the treaty now out of the way, those tubes are being unplugged.

While Trump steps up its military strategy to interdict narcotics from its neighbors in South and Central America—with more airstrikes against alleged drug-trafficking boats— China is reportedly stepping up its own aggressive tactics towards Taiwan. The latest is increasingly dangerous challenges by China’s fighter jets against Taiwan’s military aircraft, including a Chinese J-16 fighter firing decoy flares at an defending Taiwan F-16, a J-16 zeroing in on a Taiwan fighter, and another hiding its radar signature by flying underneath a Chinese H-6K bomber.

With Trump rapidly demolishing global security alliances, it’s little surprise some are now calling for Europe to create its own armed forces rather than rely on the cooperation of its diverse national militaries, particularly those like Germany’s which, once at strength, will have the potential to revive past efforts to dominate the Continent.

Israel, meanwhile, launched fresh airstrikes in Gaza last week, killing 24 people, including seven children. Israel said the strikes were to retaliate against gunfire from Palestinian militants that injured an Israeli soldier.