US, Israel preparing renewed assault on Iran as oil price climbs with summer demand

(Originally published May 18 in “What in the World“) The prospect of a cripplingly acute oil shortage is growing.

Analysts now warning the price of crude—at roughly $111/barrel early Monday—could top $180 as peak summer demand coincides with a record-fast depletion of global stockpiles.

Outages among Middle Eastern crude and condensate suppliers have been rising rapidly in recent weeks, and are on track to rise to 1 million barrels this month, from 782,000 barrels in early May.

At least 76 nations have implemented measures to mitigate the impact of oil’s rising price, which has climbed 50% since the war began.

Yet there’s little sign the war with Iran will end and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen anytime soon. On the contrary, attacks continue to threaten Gulf energy supplies. The UAE said a drone strike Sunday had caused a fire at its Barakah Nuclear Power Plant. Saudi Arabia said it had also intercepted three drones that had come from Iraqi airspace.

Trump continued to threaten Iran with further attacks if it failed to yield to his demand that it agree to relinquish its nuclear ambitions as a condition for peace talks. The New York Times quoted two anonymous “Middle East officials” as saying that the U.S. and Israel are preparing for the possible resumption of attacks against Iran this week. “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” he posted Sunday. “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”