Trump moves pieces for attack on Iran as he pulls the rug out from under Europe

(Originally published Jan. 21 in “What in the World“) As Trump stokes fears of a U.S. invasion of Greenland, he hasn’t given up on attacking Iran.

Trump backed away from attacking Iran last week after learning that building his armada in the Caribbean against Venezuela had left him with no aircraft carriers in the Middle East to protect U.S. aircraft from Iranian air defenses. Now, with Venezuela’s dictator Nicolás Maduro in U.S. custody and his government taking direction from Washington, Trump has ordered a carrier back into Iran’s neighborhood so he can deliver on his promise to Iranian protesters that help is on the way.

Europe, meanwhile, is waking up to the broader implications of having its biggest ally threaten to invade. Whether or not Trump ever makes good on his threat to take Greenland by force, his antagonism has undermined any fear Russia might have that an attack against one member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would trigger certain war with the United States. It’s no longer clear that Trump would honor NATO’s Article 5 on mutual defense. On the contrary, Trump seems determined to attack Danish territory and thus trigger a war with the rest of NATO’s members. Europe must develop an independent security strategy from now on.

And with that, argue political scientists Daniel Drezner from Tufts and Columbia’s Elizabeth Saunders in Foreign Affairs, Trump has completed the dismantling of the post-World War II order and returned the world to “all against all.”