Trump olive branch to Tehran can’t hide Mideast missile buildup

(Originally published Feb. 2 in “What in the World“) Trump has moved an aircraft carrier to the Middle East to protect U.S. planes from being shot down over Iraq when he finally attacks. Now he’s moving to protect U.S. allies from Iranian retaliation.

Trump over the weekend said talks with Tehran were underway to avoid violence. But the U.S. has in the meantime been rushing additional Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or Thaad, anti-missile batteries to Israel and Arab allies in the region to better protect those countries, and the U.S. bases they host, from what Iran promises will be retaliatory strikes if Trump makes good on his threat to strike Tehran. The U.S. last moved one of seven Thaads to Israel in 2021 or 2022.

While Patriot anti-missile batteries fire missiles to knock down incoming short-range, low-altitude missiles, the newer, $800 million Thaad is a step up. First implemented in 2008, Thaad targets ballistic missiles from a distance of as far as 200km away, using a “hit-to-kill” system to destroy inbound ballistic missiles as they descend towards their target, striking them with sufficient force to destroy them without exploding.

The Thaad battery is technically mobile, but has a lot more complicated, moving parts than a Patriot battery: each command unit consists of four separate units, including two tactical operating stations, a launch control station, and a station support group. Three separate trailers provide power, refrigeration, and computing to the trailer-mounted radar unit. Then there are six launcher trucks, each carrying eight missiles.

The Thaad therefore requires a lot of personnel trained to use it. That’s why the Thaad comes with 100 American troops who operate it. Thaads are already deployed in Romania, South Korea (to China’s chagrin), the U.A.E., and of course the U.S. A Thaad has also been deployed in Israel, somewhere in the Negev desert, since 2019. Along with Patriot batteries, Israel’s own Iron Dome, Arrow and David’s Sling systems, and elements of the U.S. Navy, it has already been helping Israel knock down missiles. Which nations have been rendered Thaad-less by moving one or more batteries to the Middle East is unclear.

But Saudi Arabia has reportedly purchased seven Thaad batteries from their maker, Lockheed Martin, some of which have already been delivered. The missiles the Thaad fires are also scarce. Last week, the Pentagon and Lockheed signed an agreement under which the company will quadruple production. Lockheed has also agreed to triple production of the PAC-3 Patriot missile interceptor fired by Patriot anti-missile batteries.

As it shores up defenses in the region, the U.S. is also beefing up its attack capabilities. In addition to the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, with its three destroyers, the U.S. has placed eight destroyers in the neighborhood, including two in the Eastern Mediterranean, one in the Red Sea, two near the Strait of Hormuz, and three in the North Arabian Sea.

Not to be upstaged, Israel continued to violate the ceasefire with Hamas by launching airstrikes in Gaza it said targeted Hamas commanders. Israel’s aim was, as usual, a bit wide: The strikes killed 26 people in Gaza City and a refugee camp, including several children. Israel accuses Hamas of also violating the ceasefire by attacking Israeli troops.