Trump ignores Russia, China to ride shotgun with Bibi in Iran, push into S. America
(Originally published March 9 in “What in the World“) Saudi Arabia has warned it may join the attack against Iran.
Riyadh warned Tehran, Reuters reported citing unnamed sources, that continued attacks against targets inside Saudi Arabia may prompt it to abandon its support for a diplomatic solution and instead retaliate. Its neighbor, the UAE, is reportedly already considering retaliation against Iran for its strikes against it.
Since the Israeli-U.S. attacks began Feb. 28, Iran has retaliated by firing missiles and drones into Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. None of the Gulf states have allowed the U.S. to use their bases in those countries to launch the latest attacks. But that clearly failed to prevent Iran from launching missile and drone strikes against them—though whether those attacks are less intensive or widespread than they might have been is debatable.
Iran’s first attacks were confined to U.S. bases and its commercial and diplomatic interests. But they quickly expanded to civilian infrastructure, including airports, hotels, and energy facilities. Last week, Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery, one of the world’s largest oil refineries, was forced to halt operations after debris from intercepted Iranian drones caused a small fire. The same day, Iranian drones reportedly targeted a Qatari energy facility, and a drone struck a fuel terminal in Abu Dhabi. Drones struck Omani fuel tanks and a tanker Tuesday. A second drone was blocked from hitting the Ras Tanura refinery Wednesday.
Iran’s appointment of slain leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei’s son, conservative cleric Mojtaba Khamanei, to take over as supreme leader doesn’t suggest Iran is likely to voluntarily de-escalate, however. After two Iranian drones struck the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, the U.S. State Dept. has ordered the evacuation of U.S. personnel from the country, suggesting attacks there may get worse.
Trump also seems determined to go for broke: late Friday, he shifted the goalposts in the war again to nothing less than Iran’s unconditional surrender, echoing Ulysses S. Grant and Franklin D. Roosevelt in a post stating: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Trump said Sunday he’d only end the war once he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to do so. He continues to consider sending troops into Iran, which would almost certainly be necessary to uproot the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and secure nuclear sites. As if softening Iran up for a potential invasion, the U.S. military on Sunday intensified its attacks to target mobile missile launchers and sites affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, and said Friday it had hit 3,000 targets in the first week of the war. And Israel on Sunday expanded its attacks to Iranian fuel depots, saying the fuel was being used by Iran’s military.
Concerns continue to mount that Trump’s “Thelma and Louise” war with Bibi is depleting missiles badly needed by Ukraine and that the U.S. may need to defend its Asian allies against China. That is forcing those allies to explore ways to cooperate on joint defense without the U.S. Europe, too, remains determined to become less reliant on the U.S. military for its own defense. Though in doing so it has increased its reliance on U.S. weapons manufacturers, becoming the world’s biggest arms importer. Europe accounted for a third of global arms imports in the five years from 2021 to 2025, according to a new report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, up from just 12% between 2016 and 2020.
The U.S. share of global arms exports rose to 42% from 36%. U.S. defense contractors have agreed to “quadruple Production of the ‘Exquisite Class’ Weaponry in that we want to reach, as rapidly as possible,” Trump posted after meeting industry executives at the White House last week, though it wasn’t clear weather that was on top of the increases they have already agreed on with the Pentagon.
Trump hasn’t forgotten his other imperial endeavors, either. After succeeding in bringing Venezuela’s dictatorship to curb, he is calling for other Latin American nations to allow more U.S. military intrusions as part of their membership in his newly established “Shield of the Americas,” which includes Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago.