As Trump aims at Tehran, NATO chief warns EU there can be no victory without him

(Originally published Jan. 27 in “What in the World“) Trump has moved the USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East for a potential strike on Iran, leaving no carrier defending the South China Sea from China’s claims of sovereignty.

After promising Iranian protesters two weeks ago that “help is on the way,” Trump backed away from his threats to retaliate against Tehran for killing more than 5,000 of them after he learned his Caribbean naval buildup last year to menace Venezuela had left him without a carrier strike group capable of shielding any U.S. airstrike against Iran’s air defenses.

So, the Abraham Lincoln and its three destroyers were ordered to steam on over. The Navy has also positioned two additional destroyers near the Strait of Hormuz. In the meantime, Trump has received reports that Iran’s government is at its most fragile since the 1979 overthrow of the Shah put the Islamists in power.

Last week, Trump switched the anti-Iran rhetoric back on, calling Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a “sick man” who has destroyed his own country. Iran and its proxy militias in the region have vowed to retaliate if Trump attacks.

Former Dutch Prime Minister and Secretary-General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Mark Rutte, meanwhile, warned European lawmakers Monday against trying to replace Europe’s U.S. weaponry and nuclear security with military might of its own.

Rutte last June struck a deal with Trump to let NATO’s European members pay for the American weapons the U.S. used to send to Ukraine to fight Russia’s invasion when Joe Biden was President. In December, the EU decided it would also lend Ukraine €90 billion to buy weapons. But with Trump now threatening to invade Greenland, some NATO members, including France, have amended the terms of that loan to oblige Ukraine to buy first from European defense contractors, and turn to American weapons only if European supplies aren’t available.

NATO members also agreed last summer to boost their military spending to 5% of GDP, up from 2%. Rutte warned that replacing the U.S. in Europe’s defense would cost double that. “It will be 10 percent,” he said. Rutte admonished the EU for trying to rebuke Trump by pursuing solo security, crediting Trump for forcing NATO’s European members to boost their military spending. Trump began pushing for the spending increase before even taking office, warning them that he would abandon them to the Russian peril if they didn’t boost their own defense spending to NATO previous minimum—2% of GDP.

But Rutte may have overstepped in more ways than one. It was Rutte who, according to Trump, negotiated the framework agreement that would give the U.S. some sovereignty over its military bases in Greenland. Rutte had no authority to negotiate on behalf of Denmark, or the EU, in that agreement.

And Europe is already racing to beef up its ability to defend itself without the U.S., or even from the U.S. As detailed in yesterday’s post, Europe is looking to replace what it buys from the U.S. Denmark now spends more than half its defense budget inside Europe, whereas between 2020 and 2024, nearly 80% of its defense imports were from the U.S. And the U.K. recently replaced its dependence on U.S. military satellites with its own constellation.

Last year, European defense spending jumped to $560 billion, double what it was 10 years ago. That has already unleashed a stampede of arms production: Germany’s Rheinmetall has opened or is building 16 new factories, and is on track to churning out 1.5 million 155mm artillery shells a year, more than what the entire U.S. defense industry produces. The European defense consortium MBDA has more than doubled monthly missile production capacity since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Italy’s Leonardo has beefed up its staffing by 50% in just over two years. And both Leonardo and Britain’s BAE Systems are helping to upgrade the radar in Royal Air Force Typhoon fighters to bring them closer to par with the U.S.-made F-35.

But Europe can’t yet build arms fast enough to replace its reliance on the U.S. and other arms exporters, like South Korea. Europe accounts for 10% of total U.S. defense industry revenue, and relies on U.S. contractors for its stealth fighters, long-range drones, long-range missiles, long-range air defense, rocket artillery, and its satellite and aircraft gathering intelligence. And despite efforts to improve the Europe’s top fighter jet, the Typhoon, and design a more advanced one with Japan, Europe is at least a decade from being able to build a stealth fighter that can match the U.S.-made F-35.