Trump drones on about peace talks as Israel attacks, Russia sends Iran attack drones

(Originally published March 26 in “What in the World“) Iran rejected Trump’s peace proposal and countered with its own demands: sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and reparations. The White House responded by saying Trump was ready to “unleash hell” if Iran doesn’t relent. Iran has also denied peace talks are even taking place, saying the White House is negotiating with itself.

There’s a word for the progress an aggressor is making when it touts negotiations that a defender denies taking part in or even wanting: losing. That’s what happens when the status quo favors the defender. Iran is using cheap and easily produced drones to scatter U.S. forces in the region despite vastly superior U.S. and Israeli air and sea power. Trump, meanwhile, has demanded that friend and foe alike come to his aid in opening the Strait of Hormuz. But with Iran in defacto control over the vital passage and high oil prices slamming everyone from American commuters to Asian factories and Australian farmers, it may not be to Trump’s side that allies ultimately tilt their support.

The only thing Trump’s olive branch appears to have accomplished is to prompt Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to order his military to step up airstrikes against Iran in case there is a ceasefire. So, clearly Bibi is neither coordinating attacks with Trump nor knows the state of any alleged negotiations. Its assault against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon also continues unchecked.

U.S. military strikes have also apparently expanded into Iraq, hitting an Iraqi military base that is also used by ostensibly loyal units of the Popular Mobilization Forces. The PMF is an umbrella group for Iraqi militias that includes Iran-backed militias in the regional “Axis of Resistance” that has been attacking U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria.

And Russia may be entering the fray, as well. After first buying Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones to use against Ukraine, and then building facilities to produce them itself, Russia is now reportedly sending lethal drones to Iran. Will China get involved? Yale history professor likens the current environment to that that preceded World War I, and re-explores the parallels in the relationship between the U.S. and China and the mutual mistrust and rivalry between Germany and the United Kingdom that led them into war. If Taiwan doesn’t supply the trigger, perhaps the Strait of Hormuz will.