Nations queue up for new weapons supplies as Trump leads world into war

(Originally published March 27 in “What in the World“) The race for weapons is intensifying.

With Trump trapped in a quagmire of his own making in Iran, Israel pressing its attacks on both Iran and Lebanon, Europe girding for a showdown with Russia, and Asia trying to fend off China, arms makers are handing out queue numbers for new munitions.

The Netherlands, worried that it would lose its place in the production line just rushed in an order for a new, €940 million ($1.1 billion) Patriot anti-missile battery. And with the U.S. rapidly burning through its arsenal in Iran so rapidly the Pentagon is considering diverting weapons for Ukraine to the Middle East, on Wednesday it inked a deal with Lockheed Martin to quadruple production of its new Precision Strike Missile, the long-range strike missile designed to replace the older Atacm—the missiles that former President Joe Biden so grudgingly gave to Ukraine to attack targets inside Russia. Last month, Raytheon (maker of the Patriot) agreed to boost production of Tomahawk cruise and other missiles for the U.S. military. Europe’s missile maker, MBDA, is raising its production this year by 40% to meet increasing demand, including doubling its production of Aster anti-missile interceptors on strong demand from Gulf states looking to boost their air defenses.

Despite what Trump has hailed as its defeat, Iran keeps fighting on. The UAE intercepted an Iranian missile over Abu Dhabi Thursday, debris from which killed two people on the ground. Israel said it conducted an airstrike Thursday that killed the officer leading Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet Iran still controls the Strait and Israel’s military believes the war isn’t helping unseat Iran’s hardline regime. On the contrary, it is clearing the decks for an even harder line regime to take power.

So, the Pentagon is preparing to escalate with plans for a “final blow,” that would include a stepped-up bombing campaign and U.S. troops seizing the Iranian oil processing center of Kharg Island, or seize Iranian-controlled islands in the Strait of Hormuz, or all of the above. Judging from bets on prediction betting platform Polymarket, punters believe U.S. troops will be in Iran by the end of next month; they don’t think Trump can clinch a ceasefire until at least the end of May.

While the war against Tehran continues, the U.S. is still at war on Caribbean fishing boats. U.S. forces destroyed their 47th boat in the Caribbean Wednesday, killing four people it said were smuggling drugs.